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I am an academic, consultant, and columnist. I serve as an associate professor and director of the Democracy and Government Lab in the Economics Department at San Sebastian University. I also work with several organizations that provide discreet, reliable solutions to investors, stakeholders, and risk analysts around the world.

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Chile's Transformation Amidst Crisis:
The Theseus Paradox

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About me

I received my PhD in political science from The London School of Economics. The purpose of my dissertation was to understand how and why parties form electoral and government coalitions in presidentialism. You can read an example of that work here.

I am currently an Associate Professor at Universidad San Sebastián, where I founded and direct the Laboratorio Democracia y Gobierno (Democracy and Government Lab). I also hold a position at the University of Verona. Before that, I was an Assistant Professor at Universidad Central, where I founded the Electoral Program, and held visiting positions at Sapienza University, University of Milan, and University of Bergamo.

My research focuses on electoral systems, party systems, and electoral forecasting. I created the Chilean Political Landscape Dataset (CPLD), a comprehensive longitudinal dataset covering 35 years of Chilean electoral data. I also developed an innovative forecasting method called the Two-Stage Model (TSM). You can read more about it here.

I am an adjunct researcher at CEDES-USS and MEPOP-UDP, and serve as a reviewer for government grants in Chile and academic journals in political science. My recent book, Chile's Transformation Amidst Crisis: The Theseus Paradox, was published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2025. Here is my full CV.

Outside academia, I am a columnist for Chilean daily newspaper Las Últimas Noticias and online website Ex-Ante, Executive Director of consultancy group Tresquintos, and co-creator of online election game #ElectoralDeathMatch. You can also follow me on X!

Selected publications

A short list of my most recent publications is below. See all publications with abstracts, PDFs and citations.

    2026. “Electoral Reform and Party-System Fragmentation: Diminishing Marginal Effects and Vote–Seat Conversion Limits in Chile's Concurrent Local Elections.” Local Government Studies. Online first. doi.

    2026. “Challenging Conventional Wisdom in New Democracies: Social Diversity, Electoral Rules, and Party System Fragmentation in Chile.” Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy 25(1): 56-79. doi.

    2026. “Electoral Forecasting in Volatile Party System Settings: Assessing and Improving Pre-Election Poll Predictions in Italy.” Social Science Computer Review 44(4): 595-616. doi.

    2026. “Mapping party systems over time: A spatial distribution of ideological competition in Chile.” Journal of Political Ideologies 31(3): 905-922. doi.

    2025. “Decades of democracy: insights into the political landscape of Chile.” Humanities and Social Sciences Communications 12: 1911. doi.

    2025. Chile's Transformation Amidst Crisis: The Theseus Paradox. Palgrave Macmillan. doi.

    2025. “Representación y dinámicas partidarias: la interacción entre sistemas electorales, clivajes sociales e ideas políticas en Chile,” in Crisis de la representatividad de la democracia liberal: presente y futuro, edited by Jaime Abedrapo. (with John Polga-Hecimovich). Tirant lo Blanch.

    2024. “Between Gattopardismo and Ideational Change: The Mainstream Chilean Right's Winding Road to Moderation,” in The Recasting of the Latin American Right: Polarization and Conservative Reactions, edited by André Borges, Ryan Lloyd and Gabriel Vommaro, 176-196. (with Stéphanie Alenda, Miguel Ángel López, and Nicolás Miranda). Cambridge University Press. doi.

    2024. “The Party System Effects of Unstable Electoral Rules in Latin America.” Party Politics 30(6): 1126-1142. (with Gabriel Negretto). doi.

    2022. “Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error.” Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública 11(1): 81-108. doi.

    2021. “El clivaje etario: backlash cultural en Chile” [The age cleavage: Cultural backlash in Chile]. América Latina Hoy 87: 3-28. doi.

    2021. Review of Coalitional Presidentialism in Comparative Perspective: Minority Presidents in Multiparty Systems, by Paul Chaisty, Nic Cheeseman, and Timothy J. Power. Party Politics 27(2): 385-386. doi.

    2020. “A two-stage model to forecast elections in new democracies.” International Journal of Forecasting 36(4): 1407-1419. doi.

    2019. “Why do parties cooperate in presidentialism? Electoral and government coalition formation in Latin America.” Revista de Estudios Políticos 186: 171-199. doi.

    2019. Review of Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism, by Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart. Democratization 26(7): 1323-1325. doi.

    2019. “Voter Equalization and Turnout Bias After Electoral Reform: Evidence from Chile’s Voluntary Voting Law.” Latin American Politics and Society 61(4): 23-46. (Daniel Brieba and Kenneth Bunker). doi.

    2019. Review of Latin American Elections: Choice and Change, by Richard Nadeau, Éric Bélanger, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Mathieu Turgeon and François Gélineau. Journal of Latin American Studies 51(3): 721-723. doi.

    2019. Review of Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse, edited by Scott Mainwaring. Democratization 26(3): 554-555. doi.

    2019. Review of Votes from Seats: Logical Models of Electoral Systems, by Matthew S. Shugart and Rein Taagepera. Public Choice 178(1-2): 311-313. doi.

    2018. “La elección de 2017 y el fraccionamiento del sistema de partidos en Chile.” Revista Chilena de Derecho y Ciencia Política 9(2): 204-229. doi.

    📍 Click here to see a collection of my comments in the international press! (TIME, The Economist, The Guardian, BBC, Le Monde, Deutsche Welle, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, El País, CNN, Bloomberg, Les Echoes, De Tijd, Nasdaq, Expansión, Il Giornale ...).📍

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Home / Academia / Publons / Google Scholar / ResearchGate / CV / Orcid / Web of Science / Twitter / Anid / Columns / Press (Global) / Prensa (Chile) / Interviews / LinkedIn / On the Front Page / Tresquintos / Cuatroseptimos / E-mail / Universidad San Sebastián / Facultad de Economía, Negocios y Gobierno

/ Democracy and Government Lab

In the press

The Wall Street Journal / TIME / The Economist / Foreign Policy / Financial Times / América Economía / Le Monde / LA Times / Bloomberg / The Guardian / Les Echoes / Washington Post / BBC / Clarín / El País / O Globo / France 24 / Expansión / Associated Press / Reuters / Al Jazeera CNN / Nasdaq / Infobae / La Nación / Deutsche Welle / Financial Review / Yahoo Finance / Barron's / Terra / EuroNews / Veja / Forbes / De Tijd / Il Giornale / Folha de Sao Paulo / Americas Quarterly
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