Hello world!

I am an academic, a consultant and a columnist. I am an associate professor and director of the Democracy and Government Lab at the Economics Department of San Sebastian University. I also contribute to several organizations that provide discrete, reliable solutions to investors, stakeholders and politicians worldwide.

I have published several columns over the years in the press.

This is my Google Scholar profile.

📍 Click here to see a collection of my comments in the international press! (TIME, The Economist, The Guardian, BBC, Le Monde, Deutsche Welle, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, El País, CNN, Bloomberg, Les Echoes, De Tijd, Nasdaq, Expansión, Il Giornale ...).📍

I received my PhD in political science from The London School of Economics. The purpose of my PhD was to understand how and why parties form electoral and government coalitions in presidentialism. You can read an example of that work here.

I am currently an associate professor at San Sebastian University. Before that, I was an Assistant Professor at Universidad Central, and held visiting positions at Sapienza University, University of Milan, and University of Bergamo. I founded the Democracy and Government Lab at USS and the Electoral Program at Universidad Central.

My research has mainly focused on the interaction between electoral systems and party systems and electoral forecasting. Among other things, I created an innovative method called the Two-Stage Model (TSM). You can read more about it here.

I am an adjunct researcher at CEDES-USS and MEPOP-UDP. I am also a reviewer for government grants in Chile and academic journals in the field of political science. Here is my full CV.

You can find a short list of my most recent publications below:

2024. Between Gattopardismo and Ideational Change: The Mainstream Chilean Right's Winding Road to Moderation, in The Recasting of the Latin American Right Polarization and Conservative Reactions [Editors: André Borges, Ryan Lloyd and Gabriel Vommaro].. (with Stèphanie Alenda, Miguel Ángel López, and Nicolás Miranda). Cambridge University Press

2023.“The Party System Effects of Unstable Electoral Rules: Evidence from New Democracies in Latin America.”Party Politics. (with Gabriel Negretto). doi

2022. “Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error.” Revista Lationamericana de Opinión Pública. 11(1), 81–108. doi

2021. “The age cleavage: Cultural backlash in Chile” América Latina Hoy 87: 1-26. doi.

2021. “A two-stage model to forecast elections in new democracies.” International Journal of Forecasting 36(4): 1407-1419. doi.

2021. “Coalitional presidentialism in comparative perspective: Minority presidents in multiparty systems, by Paul Chaisty, Nic Cheeseman, and Timothy J. Power.” Party Politics. doi.

2019. “Why do parties cooperate in presidentialism? Electoral and government coalition formation in Latin America.” Revista de Estudios Políticos 186(4): 171-199. doi.

2019. “Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and authoritarian populism, by Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart.” Democratization 26(7): 1323-1325. doi.

2019. “Voter Equalization and Turnout Bias After Electoral Reform: Evidence from Chile’s Voluntary Voting Law.” Latin American Politics and Society 61(4): 23-46. doi. (with Daniel Brieba).

2019. “Richard Nadeau, Éric Bélanger, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Mathieu Turgeon and François Gélineau, Latin American Elections: Choice and Change.” Journal of Latin American Studies 51(3): 721-723. doi.

2019. “Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse, by Scott Mainwaring (Eds.).” Democratization 26(3): 554-555. doi.

2019. “Matthew S. Shugart and Rein Taagepera: Votes from seats: Logical models of electoral systems.” Public Choice 178(1-2): 311-313. doi.

2018. “The 2017 Elections and the Fragmentation of the Party System in Chile.” Revista Chilena de Derecho y Ciencia Política 9(2): 204-229. doi.

Here are some working papers (please contact me for citation instructions):

• APSA Preprints. How electoral designers fail: The contextual straightjackets of reform.

Outside academia, I am a columnist for Chilean daily newspaper Las Últimas Noticias and online website Ex-Ante, Executive Director of consultancy group Tresquintos, and co-creator of online election game #ElectoralDeathMatch. You can also follow me on Twitter!

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