Journal article · 2016
Electoral Forecasting and Public Opinion Tracking in Latin America: An Application to Chile
Kenneth Bunker, Stefan Bauchowitz
Política. Revista de Ciencia Política 54(2): 207-233
Bunker, K., & Bauchowitz, S. (2016). Electoral Forecasting and Public Opinion Tracking in Latin America: An Application to Chile. Política. Revista de Ciencia Política, 54(2), 207–233. https://doi.org/10.5354/0719-5338.2016.44781
@article{bunker2016electoral,
author = {Bunker, Kenneth and Bauchowitz, Stefan},
title = {{Electoral Forecasting and Public Opinion Tracking in Latin America: An Application to Chile}},
journal = {Política. Revista de Ciencia Política},
volume = {54},
number = {2},
pages = {207--233},
year = {2016},
doi = {10.5354/0719-5338.2016.44781},
url = {https://kennethbunker.github.io/publications/2016-electoral-forecasting-public-opinion-tracking-latin-america/},
language = {english}
}
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to explore electoral forecasting and public opinion tracking in Latin America. We review different approaches used to estimate the true value of public opinion, and assess the range of their application. We focus on election night forecasting and campaign variation tracking in Latin America. We propose a two-stage model based on poll aggregation and Bayesian inference. We present data from two presidential elections in Chile. We test the model and show that it provides the most accurate election night forecasting point estimate and the most comprehensive campaign variation tracking method.
Details
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